There is massive rise in the institutional activity on this counter (avg FII, DII and MF avg rise of 4-5%). I remember suggesting Spicejet at 77.40 with a target of 124 as the script seemed range bound.
But according to a latest info, a major issue between Ajay singh and SEBI has been regularised which resulted in rocking SJ by 4.64% to 97. I had earlier given a buy RECO between 88-94 range but now I am given BUY RECO at CMP. There might be a gap up opening tomorrow. I have upgraded the target price to rs. 150. Institutional investors see the crude price to be range bound and thus will indulge massively in spicejet, we have not ruled out the chances of an UC tomorrow.
Hi Wolf,
ReplyDeleteI have purchased SJ based on your opinion at around 75. Should I purchase some more ? What does UC mean
Guru is absolutely right, uc= upper circuit
DeleteWait for a while and refer the reply given to mr kalyan below. I myself made a mistake by making hasting decision and punching massice order on the behalf of one of my client.
DeleteUpper circuit
ReplyDeleteThanks Guru bhai ;)
DeleteThanks for the knowledge sharing :)
DeleteHi,
ReplyDeletecan i buy SJ now at 98
If you already haven't then you must. Take care of the timing though. I myself was wrong about SJ. Sorry for misguiding. Take Note:
DeleteThe management issues have been resolved, company has no issues as of now, SJ might consolidate due to rising oil owing to global crisis and unrest, but overall I am positive. While, 88-92 would be the ideal price to invest, but one can not ascertain the same. Behest, the entropy is rising, my friend. If investment either very small or very big, such that 6 rs doesnt matter, go for it!
Target is Rs 150. so go ahead and accumulate.
ReplyDeleteIf not intraday player ;)
DeletePlease advise my number 9555661680
ReplyDeletePlease advise my number 9555661680
ReplyDeleteThanks for the stock ideas. Some where I saw in the blog that you would charge for the SMS service in the future. Is it so?
ReplyDeleteNo. Never. I am not into such cheap tricks(equity research and advisory) which are even played by some top NBFCs. I believe in 2 principles:
DeleteIf stock market experts were so expert, they would be buying stock, not selling advice- Norman Ralph Augustine
Second, any one can do research that's what I believe. Advisory and brokerage firms are taking advantage of the mindset of common people by charging them heavily.
I am only looking for healthy decisions and sharing knowledge.
Introduction:
Hi, Vaibhavv here. I do have some experience, also in US share market. Trading there is far more complex and vast, India is somehow tracing US cycle, taking advantage of my experience gained there to make profit here. I am not as old as you think. We don't discuss my personal things here.
Vaibhavv is not my real name. I am not making my name public due to several obvious reasons:
1. I am rich, I pay my taxes, I have a pretty wife and I like to spend some personal time plus I am constantly travelling.
2. I have 3 businesses and one of them being a reputed Portfolio Management Service for High Net worth Investor, several people know me and I know several people and have a few imp contacts that I wouldn't want to loose nor would I want to get in the eyes of SEBI or an other authority plus I DO NOT have an Advisory license nor do I want one, so I won't be charging ever ever for advise.
BUT my reasons for writing this BLOG:
1. I am passionate about writing ( I have written a book as well, it's published!)
2. I am planning to expand my PMS firm in the following way:
within few months a Microfin solely for disbursing credit line for Residential and MSMEs for developing and bracing solar projects for non commercial purposes.
And on a very long term perspective, a Mutual fund service and later venture into banking.
So a little publicity, advertising and goodwill as well as a massive database solely for future perspective which will benefit the users continously in the near future (like JIO) never hurts!right
your answer: I will never ever be charging a single penny from any of my readers untill I run my own Mutual Fund.
Only a very very few people consisting of my paartner, my wife and 2-3 employees know that I run this BLOG.
Thanks Vaibhav for the detailed info about you. Your articles in this blog are really good. I will try to follow and try the stock ideas you give here. Please send your stock tips to my number 9035540992.
DeleteThank you for the stock tips Vaibhavv. I am really impressed with your work. Please add my number in your SMS list - 9482520530. Regards, Jennifer.
DeleteHey, Vaibhavv.
ReplyDelete2 questions
1.So when a stock touches UC or LC then does trading stops?.
2. I got greedy one day and fall into prey of promotional SMS and brought few thousands of Sangui Media shares. Now CMP is Rs 1 for that share. On charts, there seems to be no buyer but still the price decreases by 0.02 daily. Any reason for that?
Will I be ever able to sell those shares?
Never fall for such cheap sms traps. Study the company thoroughly and do your own research before investing.
DeleteRegarding your question, yes trading does stops after UC or LC is hit. The duration depends on circuit limit. Some stocks have 2%, some 5%, some 10% limit and some even have 20% as limit.
It depends from stock to stock.
Trading stops to control extreme volatility as its dangerous for stock markets.
In your case its 20% limit and its hitting 20% LC , 20% of your share is 0.02 hence 0.02 rs fall daily.
Vaibhav you can correct me if I am wrong.
Its 2% sorry hence 0.02 :)
DeleteGuru has almost answered answered both of your questions quite effeciently and.
DeleteI would like to add a few more things.
Sanguine Media is a perfect example of stock market manupilation/ alterations. I know people who manipulate such stocks, taking the case of Sanguine (which has a market capital of only 10.95 cr), someone, bought shares worth a huge percent (2-4 cr.) of the retail shares from the promoter (he will also be benifited) over few months using several demats, later he got several people (by sms and verbal advise) to buy it while he (as while as the promoter) was offloading his chunk. He used some news surrounding Bahubali movie being a client of sanguine to create volume. According to me, ( I researched it right now for a while) the manipulator bought a total of 30-50 (at an average of rs 0.9-1.00)(also, he might have bought more) lakh shares over a period of 5-7 months using multiple demats (probably 7-10) so as to escape the scrutiny of SEBI by not becoming a major individual share holder. Then after publicising the script he sold off at an average of 1.5-1.6 (he might have not old his total holding). Well, thats that, sometimes they excnahge hands and hit several UCs to gain trust.
Remember, I posted a link on your blogpost. It was about stock market manipulation only.
here it is: https://www.quora.com/How-many-shares-do-you-need-to-buy-for-the-price-to-go-up/answer/Vaibhavv-Shah
Now, talking about circuit breakers,
DeleteThere are 3 circuit limits for indices – 10%, 15% and 20%.Circuit filter is applied to Sensex or Nifty whichever is breached first. The trigger of circuit limits also depends on the time at which it occurs.
10% movement in either direction
If the movement is before 1 pm – 1 hour halt
If the movement is at or after 1 but before 2:30 pm – half an hour halt
If the movement is at or after 2.30 pm – no halt
15% movement in either direction
After the above mentioned halts, trading starts again. If the market hits 10% again, there will not be any halts, but if it breaches 15%, circuit limits comes to play again.
If the movement is before 1 pm – 2 hours halt
If the movement is on or after 1 pm but before 2 pm- 1 hour halt
If the movement is on or after 2 pm – trading will be halted for the day.
20% movement in either direction
On resumption, if the market hits 20%, trading will be halted for the day.
The above percentage is calculated on the closing value of the Sensex or the Nifty on the last day of the immediate preceding quarter. So, for deciding the circuit limit for the Jan-march 2012 period, the closing value of the bellwether indices on December 31, 2011 would be used.
WHAT HAPPENS TO ORDERS DURING CIRCUIT LIMITS?
DeleteIf the market hits the upper or lower circuits, trading is halted and you cannot place orders until the market re-opens.
If you have pending orders with the broker at the time of circuit break, such orders can be modified or cancelled only once the trading re-opens.
Upper circuit– When there are only buyers and no sellers in the market for particular index or stock
Lower circuit-When there are only Sellers and no buyers in the market for particular index or stock
CIRCUIT LIMITS FOR INDIVIDUAL STOCKS-
Stock specific circuit filters are applied in both BSE and NSE index; the percentage for circuit filter limit is 2%, 5%, 10%, 20%.
Circuit limits are not applicable on stocks in Futures and options segment For newly listed companies, there is a circuit limit of 20% from the issue price.
These circuits are based on various factors like market cap, volume, financial ratios and groups.
(to know how bse categorizes all the scripts visit https://growthinvestment.wordpress.com/2008/04/01/what-is-group-a-b1-b2-s-t-ts-z-classification-of-bse/ )
(Also, NSE doesnt categorizes also, it is stict about the scripts being traded on it. they do not allow companies like sanguine to list.)
( And probably calcutta stock exchange was closed due to excessive manipulation activity. It is said that the ratio of genuine: fictitous companies in Calcutta touched 1:40 during its peek)
Here is a brief list of companies and their circuits.
http://www.bseindia.com/markets/equity/EQReports/CircuitFillter.aspx?expandable=2
(it contains script that locked into circuit today.)
And it does consist Sangui-531898 which locked into LC at 9:22 (unfortunately)
And also, sanguine media limited has a circuit limit of -1.03
A company locks into LC either when it touches its limit (-1.03 i case of sanguine) by transaction ( buying selling) or when there are only sellers and no buyers.
It is almost like an IPL auction, where the unsold players are later sold at lower price later. So, if the script stops trrading due to LC, it will open at a discounted price the next session in order to generate volume.
Either you can try to sell your scripts everyday, you wwill be luck some day if you get a buyer otherwise you will trigger a LC and bring down the price again in the next session.
Or ( if you have a good quantity)
If you own illiquid shares which you are not able to sell in the open market, don't worry. Several companies, such as 3A Capital Services, Kajaria Securities and Finance and Abhishek Securities, buy such shares.
However, there's a catch. Because there is no exchange for such shares, the price is arrived at by the buyer companies and is usually 40-50 per cent less than the valuation of companies in the same business that are listed. "The parameters are the same as that used to value a listed company. The only thing is that the value of unlisted or suspended company is 40-50 per cent less than a listed company in the same business," says Rajan Shah, chairman and managing director, 3A Capital Services.
The price is at times negotiable. "Generally, the scope of price negotiation is up to 10 per cent, but may depend on the stock," says Shah.
thanks for great insight on LC & UC. I was always confused over that.
DeleteThank you vaibhav for wonderful analysis and for revealing some part of yours.
ReplyDeleteI am making good profits from your picks. Thanks a lot
Thank You, Latest scripts i am gaining and expet to rock are prestige estate and Gateway distriparks. sir, didnt get the time to write post on them. Sorry Sir
DeleteSir thank you so much for your blog
ReplyDeletePlease add my number for stock updates satish rao 9599341128
I am posting my number on multiple posts so that i am not left out of the sms updates list
Please add me to your stock updates list. Mobile No #9922917132
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